They want to avoid giving their own citizens any ideas

China has kept quiet on Taiwan's recent outbreak of street protests calling for the ouster of independence-leaning President Chen Shui-bian because it fears any strong reaction might backfire, analysts say.

During an 18-day-old protest against Chen that was sparked by allegations of corruption among members of his family and administration, Chinese officials have issued only terse statements noting that they were monitoring the protests.

"We have clearly stated that (the issues) should be resolved by Taiwan people." Li Weiyi, spokesman for China's policy-making Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a news conference on Wednesday.

Beijing's reticence may reflect lessons learned from a more forceful approach a decade ago.

In an effort to frighten voters away from choosing pro-independence candidate Lee Teng-hui in 1996, China fired unarmed missiles into the waters off the island ahead of Taiwan's first popular ballot for president. The plan backfired, with Lee winning by a landslide.

"That's the sort of thing they're likely to avoid, in order not to create a backlash," said Shelley Rigger, associate professor of East Asian politics at Davidson College in the United States.

"But criticizing the side that is working against the PRC's (People's Republic of China's) interests and preferences is something they're likely to continue to do when they believe it may be helpful," Rigger said.

Since the Nationalists fled to Taiwan after losing the civil war in 1949, China has seen self-ruled Taiwan as a renegade province that should be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.

TWO SYSTEMS

China has chosen to keep its distance during the island's political unrest, to show the Taiwan people that the two sides could reunite on the "one country, two systems" principle that now governs ties between Beijing and Hong Kong, analysts close to the Chinese government say.

State media in China have carried brief stories about pro- and anti-Chen demonstrations -- which have drawn from a few thousand to more than 300,000 people at a time -- but had not editorialized on the events, probably to avoid giving mainland citizens any ideas of mounting their own anti-government protests, said Li Chunming, a Beijing-based historian and former Chinese TV network employee.
Taiwan protesters say they oppose Chen because of allegations that he hid state affairs budget spending, that the first lady accepted gift certificates and that his son in-law was involved in insider trading...