Skipping over old technologies
to adopt new ones offers opportunities—and a lesson
there are some cases, particularly in the developing world, when technological progress takes the form of a leapfrog.
Such leapfrogging involves adopting a new technology directly, and skipping over the earlier, inferior versions of it that came before. By far the best-known example is that of mobile phones in the developing world. Fixed-line networks are poor or non-existent in many developing countries, so people have leapfrogged straight to mobile phones instead. The number of mobile phones now far outstrips the number of fixed-line telephones in China, India and sub-Saharan Africa. By their very nature, mobile networks are far easier, faster and cheaper to deploy than fixed-line networks...
Leapfrog technologies can also spread faster, because they do not face competition from entrenched earlier systems. And leapfrogging straight to a green technology means there is no need to dispose of the old, dirty one. By the time Chinese consumers started buying fridges in large numbers, for example, refrigeration technology no longer depended on ozone-destroying CFCs...
Those who anticipate and facilitate leapfrogging can prosper as a result. Those who fail to see it coming risk being jumped over. Kodak, for example, hit by the sudden rise of digital cameras in the developed world, wrongly assumed that it would still be able to sell old-fashioned film and film cameras in China instead. But the emerging Chinese middle classes leapfrogged straight to digital cameras—and even those are now outnumbered by camera-phones.
there are some cases, particularly in the developing world, when technological progress takes the form of a leapfrog.
Such leapfrogging involves adopting a new technology directly, and skipping over the earlier, inferior versions of it that came before. By far the best-known example is that of mobile phones in the developing world. Fixed-line networks are poor or non-existent in many developing countries, so people have leapfrogged straight to mobile phones instead. The number of mobile phones now far outstrips the number of fixed-line telephones in China, India and sub-Saharan Africa. By their very nature, mobile networks are far easier, faster and cheaper to deploy than fixed-line networks...
Leapfrog technologies can also spread faster, because they do not face competition from entrenched earlier systems. And leapfrogging straight to a green technology means there is no need to dispose of the old, dirty one. By the time Chinese consumers started buying fridges in large numbers, for example, refrigeration technology no longer depended on ozone-destroying CFCs...
Those who anticipate and facilitate leapfrogging can prosper as a result. Those who fail to see it coming risk being jumped over. Kodak, for example, hit by the sudden rise of digital cameras in the developed world, wrongly assumed that it would still be able to sell old-fashioned film and film cameras in China instead. But the emerging Chinese middle classes leapfrogged straight to digital cameras—and even those are now outnumbered by camera-phones.
posted by pkd at 1:11 PM
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