Is it highly doubtful that PLA soldiers would open fire on refugees?

If Pyongyang ignores tough warnings by China and other countries and goes ahead with a second nuclear test, Beijing could likely revoke a military-ally-like treaty with North Korea to end the "blood and flesh" friendship with its neighboring country, Chinese analysts say.

There are also signs that Beijing has escalated its pressure on Pyongyang ahead of its reported second nuclear test, as China has closed three customs offices in northeastern China that handle trade with North Korea.

In July, China and North Korea celebrated the 45th anniversary of the "China-DPRK Friendship and Mutual Collaboration Treaty", which contains a clause stipulating that each side will help the other defend against any foreign invasion. That is, virtually tieing the two countries as military allies.

But the commitment, especially from the North Korea side, has been highly unreliable. Pyongyang stood by idle when China and the former Soviet Union engaged in military conflicts in the 1960s.

And now, particularly in light of North Korea conducting its nuclear test, the treaty could become a strategic liability for China should Pyongyang's moves result in foreign forces becoming involved on the peninsula. Although the possibility is slim at this stage, but increasing in the face of North Korea's defiance, Beijing certainly does not want to help North Korea in such an eventuality.

Pyongyang's nuclear test caught Beijing by surprise, prompting a fierce debate among policymakers about what to do with the "friend", sources say. One of the options being considered is for Beijing to use the treaty as leverage to press Pyongyang to fall into line and return to the six-party talks on its nuclear program, as all the other countries involved - China, Russia, the US, Japan and South Korea - are demanding…

North Korea watchers say that the Kim regime is entering a delicate period of selecting a successor to Dear Leader Kim. Too much outside pressure would give leverage to hardliners, and a wait-and-see approach could therefore be a wiser option.

One school of thought among China's policymakers argues that the Kim regime has been isolated for so long that it cannot be "further" isolated, so, beyond helping hardliners, any measures will be a waste of time.

Therefore, until such time as a second nuclear test, Beijing is expected to seek a balance. On the one hand, it thinks that Pyongyang needs to be taught a lesson, as China's number two leader, Wu Bangguo, said this week - that Pyongyang should be made to pay a "high price". One the other hand, out of its geopolitical and strategic concerns, China will make all effort to avoid a sudden collapse of the North Korea regime.

It is also important to note that North Korea's test and Iran's nuclear program are linked. That is, China does not want to show that it is too harsh on North Korea, while being conciliatory to Iran.

Beijing fears that the collapse of North Korea would result in millions of refugees flooding into China. China has begun to build a fence along its border with North Korea, but it is highly doubtful if People's Liberation Army soldiers would open fire on refugees.

What planet does this guy live on? Chinese soldiers fired on their own people during the Tiananmen massacre, and more recently have fired on Tibetans near China's border with Nepal.